PPI Surges, Hike Odds Hit 70%: Tonight’s 20:30 CPI Has 3 Scripts — Here Are the 15 Stocks to Watch
2026/09/11 08:48I. Oil above $100, 10-year near 5%: the market is already pricing a hike
August PPI rose 5.4% year over year last night, with diesel up about 24% in a single month. The Hormuz conflict pushed Brent toward $109 and WTI above $100. The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%. U.S. stocks have fallen for four straight sessions, with tech leading the decline.
The market now prices about a 70% chance of a 25 bp hike at the September 16 FOMC. Tonight’s 20:30 Beijing-time release of August CPI and core CPI is the last major puzzle piece before that meeting. Consensus: headline CPI +0.3%–0.4% m/m and 3.3%–3.4% y/y; core CPI +0.2% m/m, easing to 2.4% y/y. Headline is easily distorted by gasoline. What can reprice hike odds is core CPI.
II. Hot, in line, or cool: five names for each outcome
| Hot (core ≥0.3%) | rXOM | Exxon Mobil |
| rUSO | Crude oil ETF | |
| rJPM | JPMorgan | |
| rBAC | Bank of America | |
| rSQQQ | 3x short Nasdaq | |
| In line (core ~0.2%) | rWMT | Walmart |
| rCOST | Costco | |
| rV | Visa | |
| rAAPL | Apple | |
| rLLY | Eli Lilly | |
| Cool (core ≤0.1%) | rNVDA | NVIDIA |
| rAMD | AMD | |
| rTSLA | Tesla | |
| rDHI | D.R. Horton | |
| rTLT | Long-term Treasury ETF |
III. Watch core CPI first, then next week’s FOMC
A hot print is not a broad rally in energy and banks. It is tech getting hit on valuation, with energy and banks holding up relatively better, and rSQQQ capturing the Nasdaq pullback. An in-line print is not a reason to chase oil — oil is already priced in this week. A range-bound tape favors pricing power and cash flow. A cool print is the window for chips, EVs, housing, and Treasuries.
The geopolitical premium in energy will not fade quickly. Volatility will stay high. Keep position size in check and wait for Wednesday’s FOMC statement and dot plot.
Disclaimer: For reference only. Not investment advice.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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